I’m going to keep this one pinned to the top for a while as a terse linked summary of my original analysis insights (though sometimes incorporating key findings by others) in reverse chronological order so you can check my most recent original contributions from a cold or lukewarm start. This post will remain under construction so checking back is a good idea — and re-reading it occasionally should be helpful to cement your understanding. … [updated 210830]
Original analysis (major contributions)
We are all “Pigpen” from Charlie Brown with regard to especially aerosol respiratory viruses and lockdowns and masking have little or no effect in that regard. I illustrate (including the use of an interesting 2 minute video on nanoscale sizing) why stopping aerosol viruses like C19 and the flu with random cloth masks are like trying to stop mosquitoes with a chain link fence.
The virus hysteria created especially by the US media caused people to believe that 50-200+ TIMES more people were dying with the virus than was reality. The fact they didn’t recoil and correct this tells you it was on purpose.
It’s quite interesting to look away from US media hysteria and instead look at European excess deaths (using Euromomo) in the light of virus seasonality and correcting to zero based charting and full population relative impact. Excess deaths provide the maximum bounds for the impact of the pandemic.
Sunny, outdoor crazed and low average BMI Larimer County, Colorado has approximately 20% of the pre-retirement C19 and 40% of the post-retirement C19 deaths as the US average. In effect, it is a partial lens into pre-food pyramid and pre-propaganda-tubed sedentary America and as such ends up with C19’s impact pretty much akin to that of a “bad flu”.
The vilified Sweden’s relatively relaxed response to C19 ends up being an overall death rate setback to 2013. Hardly the disaster that propaganda media relentlessly parrots. This shows up clearly in a death rate heatmap chart.
The recent on-going (pre-C19) death rate from flu in Africa, Asia and South America is comparable to or even higher than the death rate from C19 in the harder hit US and Europe. So they don’t mention it. There is a “criss cross” chart pattern where when countries are classified by average BMI, the “healthy BMI” African and Asian countries have very low C19 death rates but very high flu death rates and the “overweight BMI” US and EU countries are vice versa. In fact in each case the “low death rate” is around or below 200 deaths / million. The chart of this is fascinating.
C19 has probably accelerated the US death levels by 3 years or less given pre-existing death trends in CDC data. An animation of the US boomer generation’s progression through the US population pyramid shows huge pressure building for rising death totals. And when augmented by the retrospective population and age adjusted mortality view for the US the case is devastating against mass population imprisonment. I also explain that NYC shows that imprisonment doesn’t work anyway.
Even taking the US CDC C19 death toll at face value, this pandemic is entirely comparable in magnitude of deaths to the last major US pandemic events (1957 Asian Flu and 1968 Hong Kong Flu) when adjusted for population growth and age distribution (health statistics use rates to compare across time). We did very little for those pandemics and suffered minor economic impact — and we should have taken the same approach this time.
Again taking the US CDC C19 death reporting at face value, the increase to the US death rate does not move us out of the range of US state or European country death rates that existed before the start of the pandemic! For instance, the current “ask” by the government/ media complex is that the average US citizen should have been terrified to move to Germany or Maine last year! This fails any reasonable sanity test and can only be sustained by dishonest propaganda.
New York City was easily the hardest hit locale in the world but is actually quite similar now in death rate to lightly touched locales like Larimer County, CO which are favored by low BMI and higher vitamin D levels/ sunshine partially due to a low minority population (Africans [in Africa] have high vitamin D levels but African-Americans do not due to latitude — and minorities in NYC suffered twice the death rate as whites due to this). But NYC went through the crucible and is no longer suffering excess deaths no matter what they label as C19 deaths with dishonest testing!
The recent “scare numbers” of C19 deaths in the US can be accounted for by C19 displacing not only the flu but most of the viruses that form the excess deaths “sine baseline” which itself is on the order of 200K deaths a year (and similar or higher in Europe). That plus PCR “Ct infinity” testing tagging a good increment of hospital deaths as C19 when they are at best “with” C19. Here’s an update using the UK data as an excellent example to graphically illustrate this.
Original analysis in progress
It turns out there is a wide variance in death rates and their historical trends among countries and even states within large countries like the US. And this is true even among what are commonly considered to be first world countries — for instance, Germany has about 2x the death rate of Israel previous to 2020! This has implications for many issues in the C19 debate including setting excess deaths baselines and setting proper historical perspective. For instance, this year’s death rate in Sweden is equivalent to their death rate in 2016 — where was the gnashing of teeth from them then? And Sweden’s sharply improving death rate trend actually makes their relative excess death measurements look comparatively good when the excess baseline is set using past year’s averages as is one technique.
Original contributions to work by others
When Euromomo is analyzed in terms of flu (now “PIC”) seasons, it turns out that the 2019-20 season (new, improved with the addition of coronavirus) only had 3% greater total deaths than the last “bad flu season” of 2017-18! This also raises the question of what happened to the flu in Europe in addition to the US…
Masks are not only questionable in efficacy but could even be causing harm in terms of further aerosolization of the virus (ever look closely at what happens when you clean a screen with a jet of water from your garden hose? — cough, cough).