Risky Business
Some graphical perspective to help interpret those 99.99x% Team Reality survival numbers
You can look at the various 99.99x percentage survival numbers from various team reality Twitter posts as a general and usually ballpark correct indictment of the general CNN fear fest about C19 deaths. I took a hard look at that general propagandistic ugliness in my recent “9% Uncorrected”.
But some of the 99.99x stuff such as some updates coming from Dr. Ioannidis deserve some further breakdown and understanding. Here’s my single graphic attempt at breaking down Ioannidis’ latest — click on it for a magnified version:
As @justin_hart keeps pointing out, death risk from C19 — just as with everyone’s general risk from all causes — rises exponentially with age and co-morbidities which are more or less correlated depending on the individual. I also illustrated this in “The (Log) Curve” which is worth another look for the more math inclined.
But the idea with this graphic is not only to show the 10x changes between the grey 20 year increment cells (37037 / 10 = ~3226 / 10 = ~370 / 10 = ~42) but to also graphically show their relative sizes in the four corners of a rectangle representing 100%.
I also created a column in the table for the size of a venue that would be needed to on average have one death in it using that percentage. As you can see, we are talking about larger football stadiums to understand C19 death rates in the young — and that’s taking the population as a whole which unfortunately includes some obese and sickly kids.
Younger and healthier kids actually start to spit at 1 in 1 MILLION risks of death as I charted toward the end of “Mode 86”. And as I also pointed out there, it isn’t until US adults reach age 54 that — even with C19 added to all the other risks of death everyone faces often without thinking about it — their yearly risk of death passes 1%.
But even including the unhealthy, I couldn’t actually draw the dot for ages 0-19 small enough to be to correct scale using Excel in this representation…
Did I forget to mention you need to turn off the TV and think for yourself?