Preview: A US state-focused variant on Jikkyleaks birthrate decline thread

UPDATE: The bad cat is also developing concerns using data from Sweden

@Jikkyleaks has a very interesting Europe focused thread on possible birth rate decline from the vax (archived threadreaderapp version here just in case; direct thead link at the end of this post).

But he does have a reference to North Dakota that got me to thinking about doing something similar for US states (the CDC has relevant data here; I took a swag at adjusting NM and OK given their incompleteness table so the color gradient wasn’t thrown off too much).

Here’s what that looks like:

What you’re looking at is a heat map of percent change in births year over year from 2021 to 2022 for the months January through April for US states ordered by vaccination rates top to bottom. This comparison is interesting since those months in 2021 had a very small percentage of vaxed pregnant women as the vax was first rolled out to the older population. Then in Apr/May the vax campaign ramped up quickly for the pre-retirement population which also resulted in the obvious vax deaths in Larimer County I charted here.

But given the typical 9 month pregnancy cycle, if the vax lowered the birth rate we would expect to see a decline in births year over year at least starting to hit by January 2022 and the comparison YoY should be reasonable since the early months of the year were almost entirely pre-vax in 2021. (Any issues with 2021 numbers should be just normal variation and anything that Covid itself was causing — I am about to work on more analysis re that using CDC Wonder historical data.)

But to further complicate it, there has been a ramp in vaccinations of pregnant women that is not as steep as the general population rate (thankfully) that is only documented through the start of 2022 here by the CDC. We went from a few percent pregnant women vaxed in March 2021 to 17% in May to 26% in July to 35% in October to 42% in Jan 2022 (quick rounded numbers; will chart this later). So the bad news here is if all pregnant women were vaxed it could get over twice as bad if that was the main driver over the emerging issues now being documented with vax on sperm.

Anyway, given all of that context, the hypothesis is that if the vax is causing a lowering of birth rate we should see the heat map blend to more red left to right and blend to less red top to bottom in the rightmost columns.

Well, real world data this complex is always messy with outliers, but squint your eyes a bit and tell me what you see…

Another interesting thing is that you would expect the 10 fastest growing states in 2022 to be in general relatively less red than others in the April column and that is generally true as well!

More to come…

Also see this post from SWPRS