As all right thinking people know, NYC is continually feted by fake news as the best response in the world to C19. Trump killed millions and Cuomo and DeBlasio saved billions.
That of course means that there is no worse C19 disaster available to analyze than NYC. Couldn’t be more obvious.
So what if we postulate that NYC is the “guardrail” of how bad things can be going forward?
If you go by the data on the NYC Covid website’s front page (which is a mirror house of misdirection but I’ve been watching it long enough to be your trusty tour guide) things are unfortunately spinning out of control again! Must be OMB causing Andrew trouble! Time to crawl into your basement in terror and starve through no fault of your local political leadership of course.
Deja vu for some of you as I have pointed out before that the actual reality of the now endemic C19 in NYC looks like this instead LOL
That’s right, this chart is now squirreled away off the main page and they think you are dim enough to forget about what happened last April and can now be scared witless by what’s in the red box! But like the failed “casedemic” they attempted last summer, they still have a problem: it’s hard to make endemic numbers be terrifying.
Remember this recent chart?
The upper black line is NY State and NYC is worse than that with around 2800 deaths/M if you count “probables” like they insist.
But given they have a hard time with deaths liftoff for the new “flu19” season, that suggests that they are pretty deeply into endemicity now even with continuing lockdown skewing things likely for the worse. But the population pyramid is going to keep feeding people in the the target frail elderly demographic with terminal immune system failure ripe for the flu19.
So each season there will certainly be some C19 deaths even if everyone possible was taken out in the last season and even if the herd immunity level as suggested by impressive antibody levels is surprisingly high. That’s endemicity.
But if NYC is running at 20 deaths a day at an endemic “flu19” season level — well, with fake test tagging and lockdown deaths of course — that still ends up with a national projection of ~800 deaths a day for the US as NYC is about 1/40 of the US population. So even that is 300K deaths per year!
But virus and immune system seasonality says we are not going to run that all year around and NYC were running more like 4 deaths/ day in the summer. If we’re relatively pessimistic and say we run this way for 6 months of the year and 6 months in summer mode that would result in ~180K deaths a year for a national endemicity if the country was NYC as the forerunning prototype.
Now subtract lockdown deaths and fake Ct tagging and this doesn’t look so unbelievably formidable especially if the flu has been displaced — we’ll see.
But to get to that state assuming the US was NYC we would need to hit about 900K deaths. Given how NYC did everything “right” and has unique density and social networks (Hassidics and Arabs and a generally huge recent immigrant population for instance) I’d expect something more like half or 2/3 of that around the rest of the country.
For calibration the white population PFR to date in NYC is 1500 deaths/M without “probables” (blacks and hispanics have about twice the C19 death rate of whites BTW and its vitamin D deficiency to a likely high degree in my opinion looking at this Israeli study). And note where NY and NJ have plateaued on that last cumulative chart.
If we call that 500K then we are about 60% of the way there and likely to hit it in the current “flu19” winter. (Would I be shocked by 600-700K? No.)
If that’s true then my recent rate chart will just repeat for the 2020-21 season and the US will remain “new Belgium” with an unlikely worst case of Germany. Terrors.
Speaking of Belgium, it serendipitously turns out to be Europe’s NYC equivalent and is in the process of semi-plateauing close to my prediction. It could significantly overshoot on my US suggestion over time though given its NYC’ness.
If only you knew to hide in your basement last year instead of taking that promotion to Brussels or Frankfurt!
And I’m mostly taking everything at face value which we all know by now has the provenance of US and Venezuelan elections.
Related to this one of the next things up is a further analysis of what happened in years beyond the 1957 Asian Flu pandemic. We already know the next year was relatively mild but 1959-60 was significant. In magnitude if not exact virus this timeframe may yield some insights about how to best lock down … oh, wait... Ike was not up for destroying his own country like today’s neo-Mansonic political crowd. (I suspect that Charles is now slack jawed to discover what a piker he was.)