All models are wrong, some models are useful. — George Box
So I ran a simple experiment looking at a ten day forecast for Fort Collins with three different weather sites to verify why they generally refuse to provide forecasts stretching beyond 10 days. It ended today.
The colored lines are the ten day forward forecasts for daily highs and lows from ten days ago and the black dashed lines are the actual temp lines retrospectively now that forecast period has expired.
Yes, that’s right. My furnace was running during the day today (May 2) when all three models used by the various forecasters failed to predict it would happen.
And the prediction of high temps generally lost its mojo for all of them just over half way in.
Low temp forecasting did better but with an interesting early excursion where the odd model out (the iPhone default app) clearly did better than both Weather Bug and Weather Underground.
Now consider this — a problem legions of weather scientists and avalanches of supercomputer cycles are clearly still flailing at with no lack of money and prospective payoffs if they could stretch its reliable viability period out a few days further — in light of “Professor Doom” Neil Ferguson’s crazily exaggerated death predictions for C19 at the start of the pandemic and the global warming death cult’s dogged claim of a few degrees of temperature accuracy modeled a hundred years into the future and you will be forgiven for your ever expanding skepticism.
By the way, the global warming models are known to have a comically simplistic ability to model clouds and this forecast period end weather model failure was … because we had a cloudy, cold rainy day today within the ten day limit that ALL the models missed! LOL
And yes, I really did start this experiment days ago randomly.
One of the greatest quotes on modeling of all time for the closer:
Nature isn't classical, dammit, and if you want to make a simulation of nature, you'd better make it quantum mechanical, and by golly it's a wonderful problem, because it doesn't look so easy. — Richard Feynman
And we should be surprised why models of earth scaling suck?
One of the reasons there is so much fake news, including bad weather forecasts, is that news and weather forecasts are used for comms (coded communications).
Recently, the news reported a tornado in a Texas town where the weather was beautiful that day. I know the weather was beautiful (no tornado) because I have a friend who lives in that town. The "tornado" report was really a comm about arrests of people involved in a child trafficking ring there.
This kind of thing is constant. Often they'll do those "spring forecasts" where they'll color a section of the U.S. map red and predict a much hotter than normal spring. We already know they can't predict that far. What it's about is some kind of law enforcement crackdown moving into that area.
Or you'll read about a coming comet near-miss with earth. That's always a heads up that the crimes of some elite are about to be exposed. For example, just before Ghislaine's arrest there were msm news stories about an "Eiffel-tower-sized" comet that was about to have a near miss with earth.
When they were arresting mafia oligarchs in Ukraine, there were suddenly stories about crocodiles and alligators everywhere. There were also lots of stories about yacht seizures. Yachts aren't really yachts in these comms -- they are cocaine and heroin trafficking operations.
All the stories about melting Arctic ice are really about frozen water. Water is a comm for info. Frozen water is "info on ice" -- dirt elite criminals had considered safely buried.
The first Covid plandemic comms were in 2010 by Elon Musk. He was putting out comms about Mad Cow. Then, in 2014, six months after Ralph Baric patented a coronavirus spike protein, Charles Lieber put out comms picked up by major outlets everywhere about a 1870-pound pumpkin he'd grown. 187 = murder. Pumpkin = scare op. They were already planning the release of their bioweapon way back then.
One of the reasons there is so much fake news, including bad weather forecasts, is that news and weather forecasts are used for comms (coded communications).
Recently, the news reported a tornado in a Texas town where the weather was beautiful that day. I know the weather was beautiful (no tornado) because I have a friend who lives in that town. The "tornado" report was really a comm about arrests of people involved in a child trafficking ring there.
This kind of thing is constant. Often they'll do those "spring forecasts" where they'll color a section of the U.S. map red and predict a much hotter than normal spring. We already know they can't predict that far. What it's about is some kind of law enforcement crackdown moving into that area.
Or you'll read about a coming comet near-miss with earth. That's always a heads up that the crimes of some elite are about to be exposed. For example, just before Ghislaine's arrest there were msm news stories about an "Eiffel-tower-sized" comet that was about to have a near miss with earth.
When they were arresting mafia oligarchs in Ukraine, there were suddenly stories about crocodiles and alligators everywhere. There were also lots of stories about yacht seizures. Yachts aren't really yachts in these comms -- they are cocaine and heroin trafficking operations.
All the stories about melting Arctic ice are really about frozen water. Water is a comm for info. Frozen water is "info on ice" -- dirt elite criminals had considered safely buried.
The first Covid plandemic comms were in 2010 by Elon Musk. He was putting out comms about Mad Cow. Then, in 2014, six months after Ralph Baric patented a coronavirus spike protein, Charles Lieber put out comms picked up by major outlets everywhere about a 1870-pound pumpkin he'd grown. 187 = murder. Pumpkin = scare op. They were already planning the release of their bioweapon way back then.