The 7% Winter Ro-pocalypse
Larimer County, CO lately has 7% higher deaths than normal due to C19...
… even if you believe they have the PCR Ct settings dialed below 45,000 (/sarc). Now where have I seen that number (one in) 45,000 before?
It’s an interesting question in Larimer what the Ct settings are since the local hospitals aren’t using the tests so they can still have any staff that isn’t home “sick”. I’d guess they’re at 45,000 (yes, I’m using that sarcastically for Ct 45 or something approaching that) based on their just mostly dropping staff testing.
Did I forget to mention that we’ve added another corona cold virus and corona cold viruses have an estimated mean R0 of over 4 and possibly as high as 8? Smallpox’s estimated R0 starts at 5 and I’m sorry but a handkerchief on your face won’t stop it — stories of its spread are legendary!
Here’s my quickie summary of the last 3 weeks deaths in Larimer which is really part of the new virus season and could be the worst case run rate. Still just somewhat worse than the peak of a bad flu season (is there a flu season?).
No deaths below retirement age
Average age of C19 death 82.5 and median age 80 — both above the general average age of death in the US. This cannot happen if the young are being affected
Roughly equivalent to something meaningfully worse than the 2018 “bad flu year”
If the US sustained as Larimer is currently — which it won’t due to seasonality — it would be the US equivalent of 200K deaths as opposed to 2018’s 60-80K flu deaths. But it is unclear currently if some of the C19 deaths are actually flu deaths due to delays in flu testing to tag each patient as C19 if possible first … or that C19 has just largely displaced flu deaths as they both compete for the same mostly frail elderly target demographic “dry tinder”.
Interestingly, if we note that CA is about 100x the population of Larimer and rounded up and called Larimer a C19 death a day, then we come up with about 100 deaths / day for CA.
Seems about right.
Which brings me to the plight of this woman from CA. She speaks poignantly to the coronatarian bullshit that all of us see. I’m with her.