Original Research and Pointers: Some Lesser Known But Key Pandemic Facts
Including Larimer County, CO Details
Some lesser known original and referenced pandemic research items:
The last major US pandemics were the Asian Flu Pandemic in 1957 and the Hong Kong Flu in 1968 which according to the CDC web site caused 116K and 100K deaths in the US respectively. But did you know that the CDC also has methods to population and age adjust events to form valid historical comparisons that result in those pandemics causing roughly 400K and 280K deaths respectively in 2020 equivalent terms? The current [inflated] CDC virus death estimate for the US is 260K – it's interesting how similar these numbers are... (see chart 1 below; original research)
There are 4 other coronavirus strains previously in general circulation that cause 20% of the USA's 1 BILLION cold infections each year. While this new virus has novelty, it also has similarity with some of these cold viruses resulting in substantial pre-existing (e.g. T-cell) cross immunity in the population. There are also questions emerging whether C19 has displaced these viruses and the flu or whether they are not being found due to test timing issues. (Cold infections are known to decrease with age w/o vaccines and this has been the case in my life; known research)
A French research team just came out with a study concluding that it was not lockdowns (or their variations) that drove deaths differences around the world but instead [primarily] western countries caught in life expectancy pressure are the real issue re coronavirus vulnerability. This is consonant with an analysis I did a number of months ago showing increasing population adjusted mortality in the US since 2009 causing an incremental 1.4M deaths that were unsurprisingly never called to attention by authorities. (see chart 2 below; consilience with my original research)
In Larimer County, CO the median age of death from the virus has now risen to 84 (!) which is much higher than the pre-existing median age of death in the US! This cannot happen if the virus is affecting the young and middle aged! (see chart 3 below; original research)
In Larimer specifically, those <65 add a 1/45,000 risk of death to a pre-existing and very low risk of 1/400 (only a <1% increase!!!) and those 65+ add a 1/660 risk to a pre-existing 1/22 risk (a ~3% increase). None of this supports the measures so far in our community (or country). (see charts 4 and 5 below; original research)
Chart 1: A comparison of COVID-19 with the 1957 Asian Flu pandemic deaths
Chart 2: The US has been on a trend of increasing all cause deaths since 2009
Chart 3: Larimer County has a median COVID-19 death age of 84!
Chart 4: For pre-retirement people in Larimer County COVID-19 has increased the risk of death by <1% !! (from 0.25% to 0.2522%)
Chart 5: For retired people in Larimer County, COVID-19 has increased the risk of death by 3% (from 4.55% to 4.70%)